Forecasts of Urban Growth to 2050 for 4,000 cities - The new Atlas Universe
November 7, 2024 | 18:00 - 19:00
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Summary
The proposed session will consist of the release of a new dataset featuring projections of urban population, urban density and urban land cover from 2020 to 2050 for all cities on earth with 100,000 or more inhabitants – over 4,000 cities in all. Complementing the release of tabular data will be the presentation of a new tool showing maps of the projected urban growth under a business-as-usual scenario. All results will be fully downloadable by the public.
The session will engage participants in a presentation and panel discussion. It will include some discussion of findings, but will primarily be focused on practitioner-centric applications of the new data, which is a valuable resource for the many small and medium-sized cities that are experiencing rapid urban growth. The release will be supported by experts from WRI, New York University, and the World Bank who are versed in the research and practical implications for urban planning. Considerable time will be reserved for audience questions.
Although research has shown that projections of urban growth can contribute to improved planning outcomes, accessing projections has long been an obstacle for many cities. The problem is particularly acute in smaller cities in less developed countries, where most urban growth is projected to take place in the next three decades. Those cities, faced with the challenge of planning for future urbanization, often underestimate the quantity of growth that will occur, resulting in the formation of large unplanned settlements with inadequate housing and insufficient climate protection. The new projections provide immediate practical benefits, empowering local planners and policymakers by allowing them to visualize their future urban growth and consider different scenarios for service provision, housing demand, infrastructure spending, and more, promoting improved access to housing.
The data was developed by a joint research team from the World Resources Institute and New York University in response to concerns about rapid unplanned urban expansion, which can threaten the sustainability and productivity of cities and urban areas. The goal of the research project is to put projections in the hands of planners and policymakers. The results are being disseminated through a web application, with data available for download.
An overview of the data products will be presented by the lead researchers, followed by a workshop reviewing the practical applications, led by selected planners and policymakers, primarily and primarily focusing on leaders from rapidly urbanizing countries in the global south.
Objectives
The main objective of this event is to provide new information to planners and policymakers about the next three decades of urban growth in individual cities. Restrictions on access to information disempower local policymakers and planners, undermining decentralization efforts and preventing locally led participatory planning efforts. Accurate information on urban growth is a key input for the spatial planning process, drawing attention to areas of peripheral growth that are often overlooked, and promoting planning practices that address the housing needs of informal settlers. Improved estimates of future urban growth also play an important role in the development of climate risk assessments and the creation of plans for climate change mitigation and adaptation.
The data release represents an attempt to relieve an information bottleneck, and, in doing so, enable cities to address their biggest challenges – housing, and climate. Many cities struggle to construct an accurate picture of their future trajectories. This event will support them in understanding and planning for future urban growth. A secondary objective is to offer new insights to policymakers, researchers, and urban theorists about the general trajectory of urban expansion in the coming decades at a global or regional scale. Estimates of urban growth are controversial, but are a vital part of the measurement of the sustainable development goals and achieving vital climate adaptation targets.